Until I looked at Flex this weekend, I didn't believe Jesse Warden when he predicted that Flex would retire Flash into a Director-like, niche position.
Well, now I believe. And I feel a pang for Flash. Not because I give a damn about the technology–there will always be another technology–but because I hoped Flash would be a uniquely powerful tool for creating new kinds of interfaces, whether in art, education, or entertainment.
I don't know Flex at all, really, but I've seen enough to know that its strength relies on HTML-like standardization of interface components. Sure, I bet (though I don't know) that Flex is a great tool for fashioning new components, and high-level AS coders will be able to find work tweaking Flex and bringing it beyond itself…but that won't go to the essential strength of Flex.
Standardization is a win-win for developer and users: develops can develop more quickly, and a la Nielsen, users can use more quickly.
So what's to gripe about? Nothing, I suppose. In the years since Flash 5, when complex interfaces became possible, has Flash become a great font of interface innovation? For instance, what has the opportunity to create your own widgets added to the broader vocabulary of interfaces?
The preloader progress bar used in iTunes music store? Occasional spasms of industry self-congratulation notwithstanding, there's little to celebrate.
What's to conclude from this failure? Well…the people who specced out HTML really hit the nail on the head. (When something Flex-like kills HTML, we should say, the king is dead, long live the king.)
Or…progress in interfaces is much, much slower than progress in technology, because it's cultural. Designers have to get beyond their assumptions, and users have to form new expectations.
Unfortunately, after Flex, the institutional impetus for innovation will be momentarily stalled. Flash developers will become Flex RIA developers, HTML will get tweened transitions…and the Flash designers left behind will be the least able to deal with interactivity.
Just to be obnoxious, I'll designate their Flash "L.A. Flash" because it is mostly produced by advertising agencies and movie studios. It's basically Flash meant for broadcast. One damn thing after another.
When I was at the Jobstock (that's a L.A. Flash job fair), all the employers that presented said they required Flashers who avoid "flashturbation" and thought interactively…then went on to show their material, which was 99% "flasturbation" with a pinch of interactivity.
I don't blame them; it's especially difficult for people who think in pictures or moving pictures to think in interaction…but it's hard for ANYONE to think in interaction. We are at the beginning, I think.
One slight reason for hope is the pressure that On2 and broadband will put on Flash designers. So much of what they do is basically crappy faux video…but when Flash can port high-quality video over broadband, what's the point? Let the After Affects people do their thing…and then Flash designers can focus more on interaction, and hope their best work will be integrated into Flex.